For the second consecutive year, the Brunei economy is forecasted to record positive growth with an estimated 2.7 percent increase for 2024. The Brunei Economic Outlook 2024 projected that the non-oil and gas sector is expected to continue its modest expansion into 2024 to further diversify the economy. The largest expected contributor to GDP growth in 2024 remains to be the oil and gas sector and the downstream segments.
The Brunei economy grew by an impressive 1.4 percent in 2023 after two consecutive years of contractions. The first half of the year experienced continued disruptions to domestic oil and gas production and a protracted slowdown in downstream activities. The decline bottomed out in Q3 of 2023 with the completion of rejuvenation and maintenance activities and GDP bounced back in Q4 of 2023 with a strong growth of 6.8 percent.
Significantly, the Brunei Economic Outlook 2024 highlighted that the non-oil and gas sector continued its expansion relative to the oil and gas sector in 2023, whereby its contribution to nominal gross value added (GVA) climbed to 53 percent, which is the largest relative difference observed in recent data. This reflects the structural transition that the economy is undergoing which is expected to increase further in the coming years. Over the medium to long term, this shift in the economic structure will require continuous monitoring to ensure that economic transitions are effectively handled while also being further nurtured as Brunei further diversifies.
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